I just finished running the latest multi-agent geopolitical simulation model on my personal rig, and the results seem utterly disappointing. As a data analytics/artificial intelligence researcher paid to work at mncs/banks on financial models, my opinion on geopolitics is always personal, I still tried my best to predict geopolitical catastrophes, using every scraping tool and predictive algorithm at my disposal, I’ve completely secured my portfolio of investments when I got the opportunity. I’m in good financial shape, sitting on my ergonomic throne with a black coffee, kinda safe from the coming storm. But really? Looking at the data from the rest of the world makes me sick. The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran in June is a mathematical illusion. All the data converges on a 94% probability of it breaking out in the second week of August 2026. The Iran-Israel conflict will soon erupt again, and this time it will be absolutely, brutally nasty.
Let’s start with the most brutal variable: Iran will ultimately lose. Models show that its conventional military and government infrastructure will be completely destroyed by continuous, synchronized attacks. It will be a bloodbath. But there’s a strange, frankly humorous glimmer of hope in this simulation. The complete, humiliating collapse of their existing structural system will force the birth of an entirely new era for Iran, one that will forever free the country from the grip of Islamic fundamentalism. Sometimes you have to burn down a rotten house to build a new, secular one. It’s a brutal evolutionary step, but the human cost will be enormous.
Meanwhile, the global economy will soon be completely shaken. We’re talking supply chain paralysis and hyperinflation. As always, Europe will be the second biggest loser in this American geopolitical adventure. We’ve seen that movie before, right? This conflict will immediately trigger another major illegal immigration crisis, flooding European borders just as they’re barely recovering from the previous crisis. Moreover, the resulting energy price spikes and economic shocks will act like a financial sledgehammer, always damaging European industry and the workforce in such circumstances. It’s almost comical how Europe always foots the bill for Washington’s foreign policy mistakes. India, China, and Russia are the only countries that will remain mostly isolated and distanced from most of these issues. They will simply sit idly by, watching the west’s dumbfuckery, and smugly protecting their overpriced supply chains.
And then there’s the good old United States. President Trump will face a massive, harsh backlash to this August crisis. In some ways, the utter chaos and strategic mismanagement of this escalating situation will make him the worst president the US has ever had, which is saying a lot. The real tragedy, however, is how much of a laughing stock American society will become in the long run. The political divide between Republicans and Democrats will morph into an unbridgeable chasm of hatred. Worse still, sociocultural algorithms show that the gap between men and women is widening to toxic, even bizarre levels. The result of all these problems will be a more hypersensitive and radicalized society, paving the way for deeper internal crises. And worst of all? When something bad happens in the US, the virus of that nonsense slowly spreads to the rest of the world. It’s inevitable.
Speaking of depressing macroeconomic forecasts, my AI models also show strange, disturbing data about the future job market. If you think war in the Middle East is bad, wait until you realize that in a few years, AI will even replace a surgeon & be far better with the same surgery. The job market has been algorithmically destroyed. We are rapidly approaching a point where a universal basic income (UBI) will become a necessary survival mechanism, leaving the bottom 95% of the population equally poor impoverished and utterly dependent on the system. The future looks very disturbing, and we are all just riding the wave. But hey, if my long-term predictive models are correct, the dust will eventually settle, and something truly better, a completely rebuilt society, different models of cash, will finally emerge after 2033. Until then, follow your responsibilities, do your duties on time, save for the rainy day & keep your head down.
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Tag: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
The Mars Illusion: Why SpaceX’s IPO will be a death trap for ordinary investors and the burst of the artificial intelligence bubble.
Let’s put aside the euphoric praise that poured out of the financial press yesterday. SpaceX’s long-awaited IPO has finally arrived, and, as expected, ordinary investors are happily lining up to make a fortune by investing in speculative tech companies. It’s a bizarre case of self-harm that deserves to be discussed in a psychiatric journal, not a market report.
If you recently bought SpaceX shares at a high price and consider yourself a visionary leader of the interplanetary economy, I’ll ridicule your wisdom and say it bluntly: you’re actually “exit liquidity” (meaning you provide an exit route for large investors).
My quantitative model, which has been tracking market liquidity for the past three quarters, clearly warned that a major aerospace company’s IPO in an already fragile system could be disastrous. The reality isn’t just bad; it’s an insult to basic mathematics. SpaceX launched at a price not based on the company’s excellent performance, but rather on the fantasy of seamlessly colonizing three neighboring solar systems. Large institutional investors (smart capital), those who read S-1 prospectuses instead of retweeting rocket emojis, passed their early risk onto the general public, consumed by speculation. Essentially, you’re investing in a billionaire’s obsession with infrastructure and accepting the risk of losing money when next-generation launch vehicles miss quarterly revenue targets by billions of dollars.
But the devastation for the average investor is only just beginning. The real macroeconomic tragedy or joke, if you’re short, is how this massive investment will accelerate the bursting of the AI bubble.
For the past few years, the entire market has been artificially inflated by misconceptions and mass psychosis. This thinking dictates that any loss-making startup using the “large language model” (LLM) should be worth as much as the GDP of a small European country. This algorithm-based fraud (miracle drug) constantly needed money from ordinary investors to maintain its absurd prices. Yesterday, that money supply suddenly and violently collapsed.
The abrupt withdrawal of the SpaceX IPO acted as a massive liquidity vacuum, sucking out any remaining funds from ordinary investors’ brokerage accounts. Unwitting investors rushed to sell their small stakes in highly valued AI ventures to buy overvalued shares of rocket companies. What happens when the foundations of a rapidly growing and momentum-driven technology sector, “unwise investment money”, suddenly shift to low Earth orbit? It’s suffocating.
An AI bubble doesn’t require a major technical failure; it merely requires a shortage of additional, unwise investors willing to buy shares at high prices. The SpaceX IPO quickly attracted the remaining speculative capital in the market, perpetuating this shortage. Heavily indebted venture capital funds, founded on the belief that individual investors would eventually buy their overvalued AI shares, now face a terrifying reality: ordinary buyers are no longer in the market. They are trapped in overvalued space stocks, helplessly waiting for dividends from Mars.
Yesterday’s IPO wasn’t a triumph of human ingenuity; it was a classic example of wealth transfer. The countdown has indeed begun, but it’s not about the launch. These are the largest, consecutive margin calls the tech sector has faced in two decades. Build your portfolio accordingly if you still have some headroom.
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(My criticism states the current market scenario. But i still believe Elon Musk is one of the biggest net positive human being to our society. His endeavours must be cherished, but with a pragmatic lens.)
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Whenever we talk about “ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE” in seminars or conferences, people question the reliability on it. I would rather suggest to EDUCATE & be CONFIDENT about self, tomorrow will be different in a amazing way & your doubts will evaporate slowly.
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